Trump promises US farmers $15 billion

President Donald Trump's administration has made $15 billion worth of promises to agriculture producers in the last few weeks before the midterm elections, initiatives intended to help offset higher costs for diesel and fertilizer that farmers have endured largely due to his tariffs and the war in Iran.

Whether that will motivate more voters to turn out in agricultural states where traditionally Republican seats are now seen as competitive is unclear. It may explain his increased attention on rural areas, including visits Sunday to Iowa and Kansas, two days before the election.

Besides the more than $15 billion worth of payments and initiatives announced by Trump's Department of Agriculture, the agency plans $13.8 billion in safety net program payments for eligible producers for the 2025 crop year, offsetting shortfalls for farmers who grow key crops such as corn, soybeans, wheat and rice.

Of the $15 billion, more than half will go toward an $8 billion one-time payment plan for farmers buffeted by soaring diesel prices. The USDA said it will release more details about the payments this month. It is not clear when the payments will go to farmers, who rely on diesel for trucks, tractors and combines.

At least $5 billion was announced in guaranteed loans for ranchers and fishermen. An additional $1.8 billion in payments is for producers and landowners who participated in conservation programs, $573 million will go toward fertilizer manufacturing projects and USD 57 million is for expanding meat processors. For specialty crop producers, $86.6 million in grants will be awarded to innovative projects.

The USDA also announced other efforts, such as expanding sales of a diesel normally used only for off-road use, helping ranchers by making cattle sale data more transparent and strengthening wolf management policies to protect livestock.

It has been a frustrating year for farmers. Increased costs for fertilizer and fuel have made it difficult to turn a profit. Last year, tariffs drove up expenses for other equipment that farmers use, and the trade war with China resulted in a near boycott of US agricultural goods.

“It's hard to go to your lender in the next spring and say, OK, well, we're looking pretty good this year, but it's all because of these extra temporary government payments, so how much can you make me a loan (for) next year for my crop?'” he said.

Alexandra Middlewood, an associate professor of political science at Wichita State University, said she has heard mixed reactions from farmers, who are happy their business will survive this year but see these programs as one-time bailouts rather than a long-term solution.

Michael Smith, a political science professor at Emporia State University, said many rural voters like the president, but some of his policies have hurt the agriculture industry. Immigrant deportations have threatened the agricultural labor force, and cuts to foreign aid and SNAP food stamps hurt the market for agricultural products.

Middlewood, who is based in Kansas, does not expect frustrated rural voters to shift to the Democratic Party, given how long the state has been a Republican stronghold. But some voters may decide to sit out of this election or vote independent, which would hurt Republican candidates.

“Independent voters make or break elections," she said. "And so that's really what it's going to come down to this year: those independent voters and who they're breaking for.” - AP