Democrats projected to win 229 House seats: CBS polls

Democrats are projected to win 229 seats in the US House of Representatives as persistent concerns over inflation and the economy shape voter preferences ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, although many Americans remain unconvinced that either party has a clear plan to improve their financial situation, according to a CBS News poll published.

According to CBS News, its House model estimate puts Democrats on course for a majority, with the potential outcome extending into the 230s. Republicans, however, retain a narrow path to holding the majority. The Democratic lead has remained steady in recent weeks but has not expanded, with the report noting that there is no growing electoral wave at present.

CBS News characterised the election as an "avoidance" contest, with voters on both sides more motivated by preventing the opposing party from gaining power than by the policies their preferred party would introduce.
Overall assessments of the US economy remain negative, with ratings dipping to levels last seen in the previous spring, according to CBS News. Most likely voters also believe President Donald Trump's policies are making them financially worse off.

The poll highlighted Trump's influence on voting intentions. More than seven in 10 voters supporting Democrats said their congressional vote was intended to oppose Trump. Most Republican supporters, meanwhile, said their vote was intended to support the president, although this motivation was less prevalent than opposition to him among Democratic voters.
Turnout could prove decisive, CBS News reported. More Democratic voters said they were certain to vote or had already voted early. However, voters who said they would "probably" or "maybe" vote tended to be more Republican, leaving open the possibility that greater Republican turnout could change the current electoral picture.

Immigration remained another point of political division. Approximately one-third of voters believed the Democratic Party prioritised the interests of recent immigrants over those of US citizens, and voters holding this view backed Republicans in large numbers. Another third believed Democrats prioritised both groups and tended to support the party.
The poll also examined Trump's campaign appearances, finding that most MAGA Republicans said seeing him campaign for political candidates made them more likely to vote Republican. Such appearances, however, did not have the same motivating effect on many non-MAGA Republicans.

On election administration, most voters expressed at least some confidence in their local and county election officials' ability to determine voter eligibility and count ballots accurately. Most also expressed confidence that their own votes would be recorded and counted correctly, with Democrats more likely than Republicans to express strong confidence on both measures.
The CBS News House model combines survey findings with past voting patterns, district-level characteristics, demographics and historical trends to estimate the distribution of seats. The outlet cautioned that the projections are subject to statistical error and may change as additional data become available.

With the Democratic lead holding but not widening, the report suggests that economic dissatisfaction remains an important factor in the congressional contest, while turnout and voters' competing motivations could influence the outcome. - ANI